MEMORANDUM
To: Interested Parties
From: Rebecca Lambe
Date: August 5, 2024
Re: Vice President Harris’s Strength in Nevada Will Propel Her to the White House in November
Nevada’s diversity is what makes our state a microcosm of the country. It’s why we’re a pivotal state to win in every recent election cycle including this one, demonstrated by the tens of millions of dollars invested here. It’s how we have delivered for Democratic presidential candidates since 2008 and secured the U.S. Senate Majority in 2022. And it’s why we know we can deliver Nevada for Kamala Harris as our presidential nominee.
Nevadans know Vice President Harris. We were the first state she visited in 2024 and when she’s back again this weekend, it will mark her seventh time in the Silver State this year. She chose to be in Nevada when launching national coalitions of diverse Latino and AANHPI supporters. Her unique strengths make her poised to do better across the battleground states, but nowhere more so than Nevada.
A recent series of public polls (and private surveys) reinforce what we have known on the ground: Nevada is critical for any winning presidential map and Harris is in a strong position to win here.
Tested Infrastructure and Exploding Enthusiasm
Nevada Democrats spent years building a robust infrastructure across the state needed to turn out voters in November. With the largest team we’ve ever had on the ground and an operation that began voter contact in April, we quickly absorbed the crush of volunteer enthusiasm that immediately followed President Biden’s endorsement of Vice President Harris.
The Harris for President and Democratic Coordinated Campaign in Nevada has more than a dozen field offices across the state and hired the largest team of organizers earlier than ever. After Vice President Harris jumped into the race, hundreds of volunteers signed up with our field team the very same day. Exactly one week later, Nevada Democrats saw a more than 500% jump in donations and gained more than 1,200 new volunteers. Those energized supporters fueled the efforts to reach nearly 50,000 Nevada voters during our most recent 100 Days Out Weekend of Action.
Nevada Democrats have a history of winning races with razor-thin margins. We know this race will be close and have built the ground game we need to win it.
Strong Support Across Must-Win Constituencies
Nevada is a majority-minority state home to one of the fastest-growing AANHPI communities in the country, a robust African American population, and where nearly 20% of the likely electorate is Latino. With the growing number of young Latinos turning 18 by November, young voters will also play an outsized role in reshaping the electorate and the outcome of this election. Nevada is younger and more diverse than any other battleground, which is why it is experiencing a significant swing toward Harris.
Recent polling demonstrates that Vice President Harris is even better positioned to mobilize key constituencies of the Democratic coalition, including young voters, Black voters, Latino voters, and women.
Nevada and Arizona form the Western Wall for Democrats
In the last several cycles, Nevada and Arizona have helped to deliver presidential elections as well as the U.S. Senate Majority. That is equally true in 2024 when both states are now competitive in the presidential election and have competitive battleground Senate races.
Nevada and Arizona are among diverse battleground states experiencing a greater swing from Biden to Harris. Nate Silver’s election model showed a three-point swing toward Harris in both states. Just yesterday, a CBS News poll of likely voters found Harris leading by 2 points in Nevada while tied or narrowly trailing in every other battleground.
Nevada, Arizona, and the other diverse Sun Belt battleground states are essential to having multiple pathways to 270 electoral votes. Democrats can offset potential losses in the Blue Wall or changes to Nebraska’s system of electoral votes by ensuring wins in the West. Nevada’s six electoral votes have the potential to be decisive, and a message that mobilizes this diverse and working-class electorate will win the White House.
A Record that Resonates
The Biden-Harris administration spent the last three-plus years delivering for hardworking families – from fighting climate change and creating thousands of good-paying clean energy jobs, to lowering health care and prescription drug costs.
Since hitting the campaign trail, the Vice President has been the party’s leading messenger on some of the issues Nevadans care most about, including reproductive freedom. She will ensure that Trump’s role in ripping women’s rights away is front and center in this election. Abortion rights will play a central role in Nevada with a ballot initiative to codify abortion protections in the state constitution on the ballot in November – an effort that remains popular across party lines and is mobilizing to the Democratic base.
Vice President Harris represents the next generation of the Democratic Party and will be able to frame the election as a choice between the past and the future. Her work as a prosecutor taking on the Big banks, Big oil, big drug companies, and their CEOs makes her the ultimate contrast to Trump, the convicted felon running to give more tax breaks to the ultra-wealthy and corporate special interests.
That’s why she has already generated strong support from advocates for reproductive rights, democracy, young voters, LGBTQ+ rights, and union workers.
Bottom Line
When it comes to turning out must-win constituencies, energizing young voters, and connecting with hardworking families on the issues that matter most to them, Vice President Harris is already doing the work needed to win Nevada’s six electoral votes. With her connection to the West and her unique ability to mobilize the state’s diverse and working-class electorate, Nevada will be central to her path to victory in November.
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